Gay Marriage

Not too big of a surprise, but tonight,Texas Voters Approve Ban on Gay Marriage. During the 2004 election, there were 11 similar ballot initiatives. Many people, myself included, felt this pandering to the religious right helped to swing the election in Bush's favor. But since that time, I've read and heard many arguments that have convinced me otherwise. One of the most compelling is in Al Franken's new book The Truth (with Jokes). He writes:

"... the eleven anti-gay marriage ballot initiatives didn't help Bush at all, and possibly worked against him. Only four of them were in battleground states: Arkansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Oregon. By my calculations, Bush won in precisely one half of those four states. ... Comparing 2000 to 2004, Bush improved less in battleground states with anti-gay marriage referenda than he did in battleground states without them." Looking at all the states with the initiatives, "red counties got redder and blue counties got bluer, with a net advantage of 2.6 for Kerry. Whereas in states without the referenda, Bush gained about 3 percent overall. So the intiatives seemed to polarize people, and actually hurt Bush."

This polarization, I believe, is hurting the Republican party. If tonight is any indication, with Democrats holding both the governorships, the trend is going to continue. They need to figure out that kissing the boot of the Religious Right is not actually getting them any votes.